16 So then it does not depend on the man who wills or the man who runs, but on God who has mercy. - Romans 9:16
I would argue that the crux of the many debates regarding Romans 9 rests on what is defined as "it" here. Some see "it" being an individual case-by-case salvation issue thus reading these verses as God unconditionally electing some for salvation and therefore also doing what's called double-predestination in that by electing some for salvation He's equally (deliberately or by omission) electing some for condemnation.
The theology of Calvinism rests on this very notion. The problem is this creates a conflict of paramount importance that would describe God contrary to how He's been made known in the rest of scripture.
Even well known Calvinists haven't been able to reconcile this conflict often citing Romans 9:20 as a cop-out. While I agree that God is never required to explain Himself, that often He meets us on our level like He did with Jonah (Jonah 4:9-11) and invites us to come and reason together (Isa. 1:18, Prov. 20:25). I believe the Bible is God meeting us on our level.
If
"it" means God elects every individual apart from their response and therefore whomever He chooses is unconditionally, irresistibly saved and whomever He doesn't choose, or chooses for hell is unconditionally, irresistibly condemned then much of scripture is found to be in conflict with
"it". Men many times have thwarted the will of God in regards to salvation. John 5:39-40, Luke 13:34, Rom. 10:21, Acts 7:51, 2 Peter 2:1, Luke 7:30, to name a few.
Let me rabbit trail on this for a moment,
If "it" is in reference to individual salvation you would have to conclude God doesn't want to save everyone which is contrary to scripture (Gen. 12:3, Eze. 18:23, 32, 33:11, 2 Pet. 3:9, 1 Tim. 2:3-4, 4:10, Titus 2:11, John 1:7, Heb. 2:9, Acts 3:26, 15:17, Luke 2:10, 6:35, 15:7, 19:10).
You would have to conclude that God doesn't love everyone which is contrary to scripture (John 3:16, 1 John 2:2, 4:10). You would have to conclude that God wants to condemn people which is contrary to scripture (John 3:17, Eze. 18:23, 32, 33:11), you would have to conclude that God is only putting on a show by drawing all men to Himself (John 1:9, 12:32, 16:8), given they don't have any real option.
You would have to conclude that man has no responsibility, literally that man has no response-ability, as in man cannot respond to the gospel which is contrary to scripture (John 1:12, John 5:39-40, Luke 13:34, Luke 11:9-13, Acts 7:51, Rev. 3:20, John 4:10, Rom. 1:18-20, 10:12-13, 10:21).
You would have to conclude that God is double-tongued (1 Tim. 3:8)
on one hand, inviting men to repentance (Acts 17:30, 1 Cor. 14:21),
but on the other secretly preventing them from doing so. You would have to conclude that God always gets His way among men which is contrary to scripture (John 5:39-40, Luke 13:34, Rom. 10:21, Acts 7:51, 2 Peter 2:1, Luke 7:30).
And these are just primary points. If you were willing to make the above conclusions then there are a bunch of secondary points you have to manipulate to fit into you theology. You would have to diminish God's love and explain God's motivation to be for another reason such as His glory as to why He gives people life that He may condemn them.
You would have to argue that man doesn't have freewill which is contrary to scripture (1 Cor. 7:37, 7:39, John 7:17, 2 Cor. 8:3, Phile. 1:14, Deut. 30:19, Gen. 2:16-17).
You would have to conclude that Christ didn't die for the sins of all men but only for those whom God chose to pay the penalty for which is contrary to scripture (1 John 2:2, 1 Tim. 4:10, 2:5-6, John 1:29, 3:16-17, 6:33, 6:51, Heb. 2:9, Rom. 5:18, 2 Cor. 5:18-19).
You would have to conclude that God wanted man to sin, not only in the garden with Adam and Eve but with each individual today which again is contrary to scripture (Ecc. 7:29, Jam. 1:13-15, 1 John 2:16, Rom. 1:30, Gen. 1:27, Matt. 25:41). You would have to conclude that the enemy, Satan, hasn't been given an allotted measure of freedom (Job 1:7) but rather he is just doing God's bidding (Matt. 13:19). You would have to conclude that Hell was designed for man per God's plan from the beginning which is contrary to scripture (Matt. 25:41).
For "it" to refer to individual salvation there are many more disturbing conclusions, manipulations, and distortions of scripture that would have to be made as well but I feel we've hammered this pretty good.
So back on track to Romans 9:16 and what does "it" mean if it's not a salvific issue. I believe what fits best as "it" both in what Paul has been speaking of thus far as well as in the verses to come (not to mention the rest of scripture we just covered) is that "it" refers to the fulfillment of God's promise. "It" refers to something much larger than our individual salvation and that's God seeing to it that His purpose, which will be elaborated on in the next two chapters, is not thwarted based on man's zeal, efforts (Rom. 10:2), or lack thereof.
The promise depends on our merciful God,
not on the faithfulness ("willing and running") of man.
Abraham "willed and ran" in the flesh to produce a son through Hagar and pleaded with God that God would recognize Ishmael as the promised one (Gen. 17:18), but God chose to not allow His promise to hinge on Abraham's willing and running but maintained it according to His mercy and continued as He elected to (Gen. 17:19), thus providing Isaac through Sarah.
So what is the promise? This is something the Jews would have already been familiar with but us Gentiles not as readily. The promise is God's word (God's word and God's promise are synonymous [Rom. 3:4]). This promise was first given to Abraham (Gen. 22:16-18, Rom. 9:9) and continued to Rebekah (Gen. 25:23, Rom. 9:10), and the Substance of this promise was to Abraham's Seed which Paul makes very clear in Galatians is Jesus Christ.
14 in order that in Christ Jesus the blessing of Abraham might come to the Gentiles, so that we would receive the promise of the Spirit through faith. 15 Brethren, I speak in terms of human relations: even though it is only a man’s covenant, yet when it has been ratified, no one sets it aside or adds conditions to it. 16 Now the promises were spoken to Abraham and to his seed. He does not say, “And to seeds,” as referring to many, but rather to one, “And to your seed,” that is, Christ. 17 What I am saying is this: the Law, which came four hundred and thirty years later, does not invalidate a covenant previously ratified by God, so as to nullify the promise. 18 For if the inheritance is based on law, it is no longer based on a promise; but God has granted it to Abraham by means of a promise. - Galatians 3:14-18
What Paul wrote above to the Galatians He has been walking through more in depth here in Romans, citing specifics, walking through more in detail how God did it, and meeting us in the OT truths many of the Jews would have already been familiar with (and therefore often leaving out lengthy back story).
How does one partake in this promise? Paul continues later in that same chapter of Galatians:
26 For you are all sons of God through faith in Christ Jesus. 27 For all of you who were baptized into Christ have clothed yourselves with Christ. 28 There is neither Jew nor Greek, there is neither slave nor free man, there is neither male nor female; for you are all one in Christ Jesus. 29 And if you belong to Christ, then you are Abraham’s descendants, heirs according to promise. - Galatians 3:26-29 (emphasis mine)
How does one belong to Christ and therefore become a true descendant of Abraham? "through faith in Christ Jesus." But I am getting ahead of our study; Paul is getting to that near the end of this chapter.
17 For the Scripture says to Pharaoh, “For this very purpose I raised you up, to demonstrate My power in you, and that My name might be proclaimed throughout the whole earth.” - Romans 9:17
Pharaoh was raised up for what purpose? To demonstrate God's power and that God's name would be proclaimed throughout the whole earth. Paul is showing us how God intervened in order to ensure His purpose stands, in this case, using Pharaoh in order to further the word of God throughout the whole earth (bringing about the Passover and even Rahab, a gentile, was evangelized by the plagues sent against Pharoah [Josh. 2:9-13] Rahab who later we discover in the genealogy of Jesus ([Matt. 1:5]). This isn't an individual salvific issue but rather God seeing to it His word does not fail even if the Israelites enter into unbelief. Before Moses went to Pharaoh he first went to the Israelites and proclaimed good news, but the Israelites did not believe him (Exo. 6:9).
"Raised you up". Many with presuppositions take this to mean God created (gave life to) Pharaoh with this intent but that term does not mean that. In fact, if you read this verse in other versions of the bible it states "Made you king" (TLB, ERV, etc). Paul tells us later that God is the one who establishes governing authorities (Rom. 13:1).
18 So then He has mercy on whom He desires, and He hardens whom He desires. Romans 9:18
Jews would have likely agreed with Paul when he spoke of God hardening Pharaoh, what's clever here is that If the Jews agree that God hardened Pharaoh for His purpose, couldn't He also harden the Jews for His purpose? They would have to agree, or at least they have no solid argument. This is why I believe Paul follows up with what He said of Pharaoh with verse 18 above that God can do whatever He wants to whomever He wants. Jews were okay when God chose Pharaoh for His purpose, but now, in understanding that God did that with Pharaoh they must come to terms that God is allowed to do that with anyone which means to them too.
The Hebrew word for hardened regarding Pharaoh in Exodus 7:22 & 9:12 means "made firm" (Strong's 2388). If you look at the OT accounts of Pharaoh you will see that Pharaoh was already rebellious and with him God had much patience, but ultimately as Pharaoh didn't want to yield to God, therefore God "made firm" his position and used Pharaoh in another way that furthered the knowledge of God throughout the whole world (and we're still reading that account today, so it worked).
Pharaoh wasn't created for rebellion (Ecc. 7:29, 1 John 2:16, Jam. 1:13-15, Gen. 1:27, Matt. 25:41)
but after Pharaoh, many times hardening his own heart (cf. Exo. 7:3 where God had not yet hardened Pharaoh's heart but Pharaoh's heart already, through the natural consequences of sin was hardening [Exo. 7:22],
until Pharaoh ended up intentionally hardening his own heart [Exo. 8:15]).
Therefore God made firm him in his desired state and raised him up for another purpose. God had much patience with Pharaoh as amazingly he does with vessels of wrath as we'll cover in verses 22-23 to come.
God not only harden Pharaoh's heart but He did so in that of Pharaoh's servants (Exo. 10:1). This is what is known as a "judicial hardening" which could be defined as "God's sinless use of sinful actions."
Pharaoh and the Egyptions had already hardened their hearts (1 Sam. 6:6).
Judicial hardening is often blinding an already rebellious person in their rebellion (Matt. 4:11-12, Rom. 11:8, Acts 28:26-27, 1 Sam. 6:6) so as to prevent their repentance for a time. We'll see in the coming chapters/studies that God does likewise in part to Israel.
As God took opportunity with Pharaoh to spread His word, God likewise hardens the Israelites (Rom. 11:7-10) so that Gentiles could be grafted in (Rom. 11:11).
Did God intentionally break off the Israelites from the Vine so that Gentiles could be grafted in? Absurd! Read what Paul concludes later in Romans 11:
A verse by verse encouraging exegete of Romans 9 that maintains a high view of God's sovereignty yet respects the character of God as seen in Jesus.
graceprovoked.org
I have a different take on Romans 9 than you do brother.
Shalom.
J.